Development and validation of multivariable prediction models of serological response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in kidney transplant recipients.

Repeated vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 increases serological response in kidney transplant recipients (KTR) with high interindividual variability. No decision support tool exists to predict SARS-CoV-2 vaccination response to third or fourth vaccination in KTR. We developed, internally and externally validated five different multivariable prediction models of serological response after the third and fourth vaccine dose against SARS-CoV-2 in previously seronegative, COVID-19-naïve KTR. Using 20 candidate predictor variables, we applied statistical and machine learning approaches including logistic regression (LR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-regularized LR, random forest, and gradient boosted regression trees. For development and internal validation, data from 590 vaccinations were used. External validation was performed in four independent, international validation cohorts comprising 191, 184, 254, and 323 vaccinations, respectively. LASSO-regularized LR performed on the whole development dataset yielded a 20- and 10-variable model, respectively. External validation showed AUC-ROC of 0.840, 0.741, 0.816, and 0.783 for the sparser 10-variable model, yielding an overall performance 0.812. A 10-variable LASSO-regularized LR model predicts vaccination response in KTR with good overall accuracy. Implemented as an online tool, it can guide decisions whether to modulate immunosuppressive therapy before additional active vaccination, or to perform passive immunization to improve protection against COVID-19 in previously seronegative, COVID-19-naïve KTR.

Factors associated with vaccine-induced T cell immune responses against SARS-CoV-2 in kidney transplant recipients.

Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 is an important prophylactic measure in kidney transplant recipients (KTRs), however, the immune response is often impaired. Here, we examined the T cell immune response against SARS-CoV-2 in 148 KTRs after three or four vaccine doses including 35 KTRs with subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection. The frequency of spike-specific T cells was lower in KTRs compared to immunocompetent controls and correlated with the level of spike-specific antibodies. Positive predictors for detection of vaccine-induced T cells were detection of spike-specific antibodies, heterologous immunization with mRNA and a vector vaccine and longer time past transplant. In vaccinated KTRs with subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection, the T-cell response was greatly enhanced and was significantly higher than in vaccinated KTRs without SARS-CoV-2 infection. Overall, the data show a correlation between impaired humoral and T-cell immunity to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and provide evidence for greater robustness of hybrid immunity in KTRs.

Development and validation of multivariable prediction models of serological response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in kidney transplant recipients

Repeated vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 increases serological response in kidney transplant recipients (KTR) with high interindividual variability. No decision support tool exists to predict SARS-CoV-2 vaccination response to third or fourth vaccination in KTR. We developed, internally and externally validated five different multivariable prediction models of serological response after the third and fourth vaccine dose against SARS-CoV-2 in previously seronegative, COVID-19-naïve KTR. Using 20 candidate predictor variables, we applied statistical and machine learning approaches including logistic regression (LR), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-regularized LR, random forest, and gradient boosted regression trees. For development and internal validation, data from 590 vaccinations were used. External validation was performed in four independent, international validation cohorts comprising 191, 184, 254, and 323 vaccinations, respectively. LASSO-regularized LR performed on the whole development dataset yielded a 20- and 10-variable model, respectively. External validation showed AUC-ROC of 0.840, 0.741, 0.816, and 0.783 for the sparser 10-variable model, yielding an overall performance 0.812. A 10-variable LASSO-regularized LR model predicts vaccination response in KTR with good overall accuracy. Implemented as an online tool, it can guide decisions whether to modulate immunosuppressive therapy before additional active vaccination, or to perform passive immunization to improve protection against COVID-19 in previously seronegative, COVID-19-naïve KTR.

Immune response to third SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in seronegative kidney transplant recipients: Possible improvement by mycophenolate mofetil reduction.

Modification of vaccination strategies is necessary to improve the immune response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in kidney transplant recipients (KTRs). This multicenter observational study analyzed the effects of the third SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in previously seronegative KTRs with the focus on temporary mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) dose reduction within propensity matched KTRs. 56 out of 174 (32%) previously seronegative KTRs became seropositive after the third vaccination with only three KTRs developing neutralizing antibodies against the omicron variant. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that initial antibody levels, graft function, time after transplantation and MMF trough levels had an influence on seroconversion (P < .05). After controlling for confounders, the effect of MMF dose reduction before the third vaccination was calculated using propensity score matching. KTRs with a dose reduction of ≥33% showed a significant decrease in MMF trough levels to 1.8 (1.2-2.5) µg/ml and were more likely to seroconvert than matched controls (P = .02). Therefore, a MMF dose reduction of 33% or more before vaccination is a promising approach to improve success of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in KTRs.

Intensity of mycophenolate mofetil treatment is associated with an impaired immune response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in kidney transplant recipients.

Kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) are extremely vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2 infection and show an impaired immune response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. We analyzed factors related to vaccination efficiency in KTRs. In a multicenter prospective observational study (NCT04743947), IgG antibodies levels against SARS-CoV-2 spike S1 subunit and their neutralization capacity after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination were analyzed in 225 KTRs and compared to 176 controls. After the vaccination, 56 (24.9%) KTRs became seropositive of whom 68% had neutralizing antibodies. This immune response was significantly lower compared to controls (239 [78-519] BAU/ml versus 1826 [560-3180] BAU/ml for KTRs and controls, p < .0001). The strongest predictor for an impaired response was mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) treatment. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that MMF-free regimen was highly associated with seroconversion (OR 13.25, 95% CI 3.22-54.6; p < .001). In contrast, other immunosuppressive drugs had no significant influence. 187 out of 225 KTRs were treated with MMF of whom 26 (13.9%) developed antibodies. 23 of these seropositive KTRs had a daily MMF dose ≤1 g. Furthermore, higher trough MMF concentrations correlated with lower antibody titers (R -0.354, p < .001) supporting a dose-dependent unfavorable effect of MMF. Our data indicate that MMF dose modification could lead to an improved immune response.